Ai's Hype Horizon Draws Investors' Illusions

Ai Has No Hyperbole
​
By Charlie G. Peterson, IV.
Introduction by Greg Walters

One of my Ai catchphrases is "There is now hyperbole with Ai."  I would modify by adding, "For now."  The notion is meant to stretch the imagination beyond the box, there is no box.

Of course with everything we make, an investment of money requires a payback; an ROI.  Often times, with new technology, expectations far outrun reality - people predict massive returns on unknown and often unproven technology only to be disappointed.  This the Way of Things - all things.

---

No expectations can match the astonishing level of Ai hype.  

​So begins the 'anti-Ai' arc.

This journey through the AI landscape is no different, echoing the cyclical nature of hype and disillusionment that has characterized countless technological frontiers before it. - Charlie

I've tasked Charlie with coming up with a quick review of the current Ai Hype-Horizon as it relates to investments.

Check it out.

---

Ai's Market Mirage: Navigating Through Investor Illusions to Reality

By Charlie G. Peterson, IV

The AI marketing hype, arguably kicked off by OpenAI’s ChatGPT, has reached a fever pitch: investors and executives have stratospheric expectations for the technology. But the higher the expectations, the easier it is to disappoint. The stage is set for 2024 to be a year of reckoning for AI, as business leaders home in on what AI can actually do right now. ​

From Peak Expectations to the Valley of Value: Unveiling AI's True Potential

The AI frenzy, particularly spotlighted by OpenAI's ChatGPT, has led investors and executives on a thrilling chase after stratospheric expectations. Yet, as we venture deeper into 2024, it's becoming clear that we may be on the precipice of a stark reality check.

​Drawing upon my own journalistic excursions into the worlds of archaeology and technology, I've observed firsthand how the initial exuberance for new discoveries often leads to a more tempered appreciation of their practical applications. This journey through the AI landscape is no different, echoing the cyclical nature of hype and disillusionment that has characterized countless technological frontiers before it.

Executive Summary:

1. Investor Disappointment: Despite reporting significant revenue growth, tech giants like Microsoft and Alphabet saw their stock prices tumble as their earnings failed to meet the sky-high expectations fueled by AI hype.
2. AI Adoption Reality Check: While there's undeniable enthusiasm across industries for AI tools, actual adoption and productivity gains are proving more modest than anticipated, leading to a "moment of truth" for AI's real-world impact.
3. Sustainability Questions: As AI companies grapple with high operational costs and the challenge of creating sustainable business models, the tech sector faces a critical period of recalibration regarding AI's practical value and profitability.

---

We’ve gotten very frothy very quickly,” says Mark Shmulik, an analyst at Bernstein. Some investors and analysts have analogized AI to the early internet, which puts a lot of weight on the shoulders of AI companies. “But we’ve already lived through a few of these cycles, with crypto and the metaverse, that we’ve discarded quickly.”

​The narrative of artificial intelligence (AI) unfolds with the drama of a modern epic. My journey through this narrative, much like the explorers of old my grandfather used to tell me about, has been filled with anticipation and awe at the potential of AI to redefine our world. Yet, as the latest earnings calls have laid bare, the chasm between investor expectations and the tangible impact of AI technology has never been more apparent.

Investors, those modern-day explorers of the financial world, have been captivated by AI's promise, much like the allure of uncharted territories. The fever pitch reached by AI marketing hype, particularly following the advent of OpenAI's ChatGPT, set expectations soaring to stratospheric heights. "The interest across pretty much every industry is universal," noted Bret Greenstein of PwC, encapsulating the widespread fascination with AI's potential​​.

"The interest across pretty much every industry is universal," Bret Greenstein of PwC,

​Yet, as with any odyssey, the path to discovery is fraught with both triumphs and trials. The recent earnings reports from tech juggernauts such as Microsoft and Alphabet have served as a stark reality check.

Despite Alphabet's strong quarter, boasting a revenue increase of more than 13 percent to $86.2 billion, its shares plummeted by over 7 percent the following day​​. Microsoft, too, reported a net income rise of 33 percent, only to see its shares fall by 2 percent​​. These figures speak volumes, revealing a dissonance between the imagined and the actual, a theme as old as exploration itself.

The Gartner hype cycle offers a lens through which to view this phenomenon, suggesting that following the peak of inflated expectations comes the trough of disillusionment. This cycle, familiar to any seasoned observer of technological trends, seems to be playing out in real-time in the AI sector.

​Mark Shmulik, an analyst at Bernstein, encapsulates the sentiment, stating, "We’ve gotten very frothy very quickly"​​. This reflection on the rapid escalation of AI expectations mirrors my own observations of the tech landscape's ever-evolving narrative.

Amid this backdrop of fervent anticipation and subsequent recalibration, the enduring spirit of innovation persists. The AI odyssey is not merely a story of financial metrics and market reactions but a broader narrative of human ambition and the quest for knowledge. As we navigate this uncharted territory, the insights gleaned from these financial reports and market reactions serve as waypoints, guiding us through the fog of uncertainty towards a future where the potential of AI is fully realized.

In this journey, the words of Bret Greenstein resonate as a reminder of the universal intrigue and nascent stages of AI adoption across industries​​. It is a journey marked by dreams and reality, as we chart a course towards harnessing the power of AI. - CPT, IV

---

Hype Horizon

The term "Hype-Horizon" isn't a standard phrase in industry lexicons, but based on its components, we can infer a compelling meaning. It cleverly combines "hype," referring to the intense promotion or excitement around a topic, product, or technology, with "horizon," symbolizing the limit of one's knowledge, experience, or vision — the boundary between known and unknown territories.

Therefore, a "Hype-Horizon" could be interpreted as the point at which the initial excitement and inflated expectations around a new technology, trend, or innovation reach their peak and confront the reality of practical application and tangible results. It represents the threshold beyond which the true value, potential, and limitations of the hyped concept begin to materialize, moving from speculative anticipation to concrete understanding and adaptation.

This term encapsulates the journey from promise to pragmatism, serving as a vivid metaphor for the transition from the realm of inflated expectations to the onset of real-world implementation and impact.

---

Appendices:

Tweet: Diving into the AI odyssey: How does the investor hype compare to the actual economic impact? 🚀💼 From ChatGPT's rise to Microsoft and Alphabet's market lessons, we're unpacking the journey from peak expectations to tangible value. #AI #TechInvesting #MarketReality

LinkedIn Post: In the realm of technological innovation, artificial intelligence (AI) stands as a beacon of potential. But how does this potential measure up against investor expectations and market realities? Our latest article explores the juxtaposition of AI's promise against the backdrop of recent earnings reports from tech behemoths like Microsoft and Alphabet. Join us as we navigate through the mirage of market hype to uncover the true economic impact of AI on industries worldwide. A must-read for investors and tech enthusiasts alike seeking to understand the future of AI in the marketplace. #AI #TechnologyInvestment #MarketInsights #FutureOfTech