​From Skyscrapers to Shopping Bags: The Echoes of Ancient Trade in Modern Suburbs

​By Charlie G. Peterson, IV

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Executive Summary: The Resurgence of Retail in Suburban Areas
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• Retail Resilience in Suburbs: As city-based offices experience a decline, suburban retail spaces are witnessing significant growth. This trend is attributed to the rise of remote work, leading consumers to frequent local suburban shops more often than city centers.
• ​​​Factors Driving the Shift: The shift towards suburban shopping is a result of multiple factors including the oversaturation of retail in city centers, the appeal of suburban life due to the pandemic, and the strategic decisions of retailers using online data to pinpoint successful store locations.​

• ​​Contrast with Urban Retail: While some urban landlords have been forced to reduce rents, suburban retail spaces have seen a surge in demand, leading to an increase in average rent prices. This trend indicates a potential long-term shift in the retail landscape, favoring suburban areas over urban centers.

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In the midst of a vibrant suburban shopping center, where families navigate from one store to another and the aroma of fresh pastries fills the air, I'm reminded of ancient marketplaces.

​The agora of Athens, the forum of Rome—places where people didn't just exchange goods, but also tales, ideas, and aspirations. Today's suburban shopping centers, with their bustling activity, mirror these ancient hubs, serving as spaces of convergence where society's heartbeat is most palpable.

Foot traffic in city downtowns in April was about 25 percent lower than during the same month in 2019, according to MRI Springboard. - Source: RetailWire

​​Retailers are gearing up to inaugurate an impressive 1,000 net new stores in the U.S. this year. But what's driving this suburban retail renaissance? Historically, trade routes were carved based on accessibility and safety promises. Caravans would often bypass dense forests or treacherous terrains, choosing instead the welcoming embrace of open plains and smaller settlements. Today's suburbs echo these open plains—offering both easy access and a cherished sense of community.

As of mid-August, retailers had announced plans to open nearly 4,500 new locations while shutting about 3,500. - WSJ

​​“Suburbanization, work from home, all these things happened at the same time that there was no new supply,” observes John Kite, CEO of Kite Realty Group Trust. This simultaneous surge in demand and stasis in supply has granted suburban retailers a newfound pricing prowess. It's a dance of economics intertwined with human nature. We're drawn to the familiar, the comforting, and the communal.

The Wall Street Journal reports that landlords with suburban properties, including Site Centers, Phillips Edison and Simon Property Group, say that the percentage of properties leased has increased since the beginning of the year.

​Yet, this retail resilience is about more than just numbers.

​Despite predictions to the contrary, the digital realm hasn't overshadowed physical retail.

In fact, companies born in the digital age are now establishing tangible, brick-and-mortar stores.

​This sentiment resonates even more as shoppers, liberated from pandemic shackles, reclaim stores and eateries. It's a journey beyond mere consumerism; it's about reoccupying shared spaces, our communal epicenters. It's a nod to the ancient marketplaces that once were, now reborn in our contemporary world.

​However, the retail landscape isn't uniformly thriving. Enclosed malls, particularly the older ones, grapple with existential challenges. History reminds us that not all ancient marketplaces flourished. Some were forsaken, lost to time's relentless march, while others evolved, adapted, and prospered. The linchpin has always been adaptability and a keen sense of societal pulse.

The suburbs of today are the open plains of yesteryears—spaces that offer both accessibility and a sense of community.

The retail sector's comeback in the suburbs shows its ability to adapt and bounce back. While office spaces face a high 18.2% vacancy rate, suburban retail is on the rise.  ​In essence, this retail revival, is more than just a tale of economics or property. It's a narrative of shared histories, of timeless human connections.

Suburbs aren't merely commercial hubs; they're the modern-day reflections of our ancient agoras and forums. As we engage in commerce, share stories, and dream collectively, we're not just modern-day consumers.

​We're the latest torchbearers in a lineage of traders, narrators, and visionaries, perpetuating a tradition as ancient as civilization itself.

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​Charlie G. Peterson, IV

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Summary - Retailers in the U.S. are set to open 1,000 net new stores this year, showcasing the sector's resilience amid challenges in commercial real estate. This surge is attributed to a decline in retail construction post the 2008-09 financial crisis, allowing the market to absorb existing spaces. Contrary to predictions, online sales haven't eradicated physical retail. Instead, digital-first companies are now establishing brick-and-mortar stores. By mid-August, plans for nearly 4,500 new retail locations were announced, while about 3,500 were set to close. The available retail space rate dropped to a record low of 4.8% in Q2.

In contrast, the office market faces a 30-year high vacancy rate of 18.2%, driven by the rise of hybrid work models. The retail boom, especially in suburban areas, is linked to the remote work trend initiated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Consumers now frequent local shops more often, prompting some retailers to transition from city centers to suburbs. This shift, termed "suburbanization", coupled with the lack of new supply, has given retailers better pricing power. Despite some urban landlords reducing rents, the average U.S. retail space rent has surged by 6.3% since Q2 2020, reaching over $23 per square foot.

However, not all retail spaces prosper. Enclosed malls, especially older ones, face challenges, but high-end malls report robust leasing and foot traffic. The retail real estate boom of 2022 seems to be moderating, with retail closings slightly up from last year. Investment in retail has also slowed, reflecting rising interest rates and adjustments from the previous year's sales spike. Yet, retailers like Dollar General are aggressively expanding, with plans to open around 1,000 stores this year.​

Topic: The Resurgence of Retail in Suburban Areas

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